观察｜金价，爆了！

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by multiple factors including inflation data and market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][6]. Price Movements - On August 29, gold futures in the U.S. peaked at $3,518.5 per ounce, while London gold reached $3,454 per ounce [2]. - Domestic gold prices also surged, with investment gold bars in China priced at 820 yuan per gram [2]. - For the week, gold prices increased approximately 2.86%, and in August, the total increase was 5.002%, marking the best monthly performance since April [4]. Influencing Factors - The recent inflation data showed a 2.9% year-on-year increase in the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure price index, which heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][6]. - The market's confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve has been shaken due to political challenges, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once or twice this year, which would support commodity prices, including gold [8]. - Swiss Bank has raised its gold price target for the first half of 2026 to $3,700 per ounce, while analysts at Bank of America expect prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by the same period [8]. Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment suggests that the upward trend in gold prices may continue for several weeks, contingent on the Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates [9]. - However, there are concerns that the market has already priced in the potential impact of rate cuts, which could weaken the driving force behind gold's price increase [9]. Risks and Opportunities - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Ukraine crisis, are seen as significant factors that could lead to a decline in gold prices if tensions ease [9]. - The current high price of gold may lead to investor anxiety, prompting some to sell off their holdings, which could exert downward pressure on prices [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a rational approach, considering market dynamics and potential risks before making investment decisions [11]. - It is suggested to wait for lower entry points if geopolitical risks diminish, while maintaining a strategy to buy during price corrections within a defined trading range [11].