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华润医疗(01515.HK):诊疗业务量保持稳定 降本增效取得成效

Core Viewpoint - The company's net profit for 1H25 fell short of expectations, primarily due to adjustments in medical insurance settlements, with a reported revenue of 4.525 billion RMB, down 9.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million RMB, down 21.8% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the hospital business in 1H25 was 4.259 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with outpatient revenue at 1.813 billion RMB (down 4.4%) and inpatient revenue at 2.446 billion RMB (down 9.6%) [2]. - The company managed 103 medical institutions across 10 provinces and cities in China, with a total of 18,286 operational hospital beds and a bed occupancy rate of 80.57%, an increase from 79.93% in 1H24 [1]. - The gross profit for the hospital business was 670 million RMB, down 27.4%, with a gross profit margin of 15.7% [2]. Business Segments - The hospital business accounted for 94.1% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points [1]. - The IOT business saw a reduction in scale, with other business revenue at 266 million RMB, down 29.3% year-on-year [1]. Cost Management - Administrative and other operating expense ratio increased to 10.4%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while financial expense ratio decreased to 0.6%, down 0.2 percentage points, due to adjustments in debt structure [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 16.8% and 15.6% to 471 million RMB and 499 million RMB, respectively [3]. - The target price is maintained at 5.0 HKD, corresponding to 12.6 times and 11.7 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 and 2026, with a current stock price reflecting 9.2 times and 8.6 times the price-to-earnings ratio, indicating a potential upside of 37.0% to the target price [3].