2030年，现在150万的房子还值多少钱？马光远、王健林看法一致

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to experience significant differentiation in property values over the next five years, with only high-quality assets likely to retain value, while most properties may face depreciation [1]. Market Trends - The real estate market has been undergoing unprecedented adjustments since late 2021, with national property prices dropping approximately 30% over three years, and some areas experiencing price halving [3][5]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have also been affected, with secondary housing prices declining for 29 consecutive months [3]. Expert Opinions - Notable figures such as Wang Jianlin and Cao Dewang share a consensus that no real estate market can sustain prosperity for over 50 years, indicating a nearing saturation point in the market [5]. - Cao Dewang has compared properties to limited-value materials, advising caution in holding excess real estate due to potential future difficulties in selling or renting [5]. - Economist Ma Guangyuan believes the era of real estate as the best investment has ended, suggesting a return to housing's primary function as a living space, leading to more rational pricing [5]. Future Value Predictions - The future value of properties will vary significantly based on location and city, with predictions indicating that properties in third and fourth-tier cities could see declines of 20%-30% [7]. - For example, a property currently valued at 1.5 million yuan may only be worth between 1.05 million to 1.2 million yuan in seven to eight years, with even steeper declines possible in less desirable areas [7]. Demographic Changes - The primary home-buying demographic in China is projected to decrease by 61 million by 2030, alongside a significant drop in newborns, leading to a potential reduction in housing demand by over 900 million square meters [9]. Structural Differentiation - While most properties are expected to follow a long-term downward trend, there will be structural differentiation in the market, with certain types of properties facing greater depreciation risks [11]. - Properties lacking educational support, poorly located, or with inadequate infrastructure are likely to be more adversely affected [13]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of 6 million affordable housing units in the next five years will likely divert demand away from the market for commercial housing, further impacting property values [13]. - The return of housing to its fundamental purpose may alleviate the financial burden of high property prices for many families, allowing for more reasonable housing costs [15].