8月重挫17% “比特币持仓溢价”抹去大半 “数字币财库龙头”MSTR面临考验

Core Viewpoint - Strategy, the pioneer of the "Bitcoin treasury company" model, is facing unprecedented market challenges, with its stock price dropping 16.8% in August, erasing much of the premium it previously enjoyed relative to its Bitcoin holdings [1][4]. Group 1: Financing Strategy and Market Reaction - The market's concerns stem from a sudden shift in Strategy's financing strategy, which initially planned to raise funds through preferred stock to purchase Bitcoin but only raised $47 million, significantly below expectations [4]. - To compensate for the shortfall, Strategy restarted its common stock issuance plan, contradicting previous commitments to limit dilution, which has undermined investor confidence and posed a threat to the entire Bitcoin treasury model [4][5]. - Following a commitment not to issue shares when the Bitcoin holdings multiple (mNAV) fell below 2.5, Strategy relaxed this guideline and issued nearly 900,000 new shares shortly thereafter [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on Market Confidence - This breach of commitment has triggered a crisis of trust among investors, leading to a further decline in the premium associated with Strategy's stock [6]. - The stock price is now more closely tied to mNAV, which has dropped to 1.57, indicating a loss of confidence in the treasury model despite Bitcoin's strong performance [6][7]. - Analysts warn that continued share issuance at low mNAV levels could initiate a "negative flywheel" effect, where declining stock prices weaken purchasing power and further erode market confidence [7]. Group 3: Broader Industry Challenges - The challenges are not limited to Strategy; many Bitcoin treasury companies are under pressure, with nearly one-third of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin seeing their stock prices fall below the value of their reserves [7][8]. - Smaller companies are particularly vulnerable due to liquidity constraints and reliance on convertible debt, which brings interest burdens and maturity risks [8]. - The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs poses an additional challenge, as these funds provide Bitcoin exposure without the governance, leverage, or dilution risks associated with treasury companies, diminishing their relative advantages [8].