卓然股份(688121)：反内卷有望驱动炼化老旧设备更新

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in its operational performance and market conditions [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 966 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.92% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -21.90 thousand yuan, a year-on-year decline of 100.62% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.71 million yuan, down 95.30% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, operating revenue was 797 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.00% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 373.60% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 8.11 million yuan, down 89.29% year-on-year but up 197.37% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items in Q2 was 9.36 million yuan, down 87.85% year-on-year but up 222.31% quarter-on-quarter [1] Order and Revenue Structure - The sales revenue from refining equipment accounted for 2.02% of the main business revenue, while petrochemical equipment sales accounted for 2.40% [2] - Engineering general contracting services made up 12.57% of the main business revenue, with other products and services contributing 83.00% [2] - The company has a total of 5.868 billion yuan in orders above 20 million yuan, which will gradually confirm revenue from 2025 to 2026, likely increasing the proportion of engineering general contracting services [2] Industry Trends - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including petrochemicals, which will drive the replacement of outdated equipment [3] - The "Implementation Plan for the Innovative Development of the Fine Chemical Industry (2024-2027)" emphasizes the importance of fine chemicals and new chemical materials for high-quality development in the petrochemical sector [3] - The industry is expected to increase investment in new technologies and processes, promoting technological advancement and industrial upgrading towards green and low-carbon development [3] Company Strategy - The company is actively investing in green and low-carbon technologies, aligning with national strategies for sustainable development [4] - It is focusing on clean energy, low-carbon processes, and green products, while exploring high-end, intelligent, and green implementation paths in the petrochemical sector [4] - The company aims to expand its market presence in petrochemical equipment, refining equipment, EPC general contracting services, and related products, while also extending its business into new materials and new energy [4] - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 130 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 200 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 27.4X, 24.0X, and 17.5X based on the closing price on August 29, 2025 [4]