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时报观察｜多重因素支撑 年内人民币兑美元汇率有望走强
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 00:36

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a weakening US dollar index and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a convergence of interest rate differentials between China and the US [1][2] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate recently surpassed 7.12, marking a significant increase, while the onshore RMB middle rate has reached a nearly 10-month high [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, particularly comments from Chairman Powell, has contributed to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, supporting non-USD currencies including the RMB [1][2] Group 2: Market Supply and Demand Factors - Despite seasonal increases in demand for foreign exchange due to corporate dividend payouts, the RMB has remained stable, with a slight increase in the settlement rate for enterprises and individuals in July [1] - A significant drop in demand for foreign exchange is expected after September, coinciding with a peak in RMB settlement in the fourth quarter, which will support a stronger RMB [1] Group 3: International Capital Flows - The trend of "de-dollarization" is becoming increasingly important, with Asian bond investors diversifying their investments away from USD assets, which is positively impacting the RMB [2] - The performance of emerging market equities this year is linked to international capital reallocating towards RMB assets, creating a positive feedback loop between the securities and foreign exchange markets [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Forward exchange rates indicate market optimism regarding the RMB's strength against the USD through the end of the year, reflecting expectations of continued appreciation [2] - The central bank's consistent policy of allowing market forces to determine exchange rates suggests that the RMB/USD exchange rate is likely to maintain a strong and stable trend in the near future, enhancing the international appeal of RMB assets [2]