期货看“五”评 | 铜：美联储降息概率较大，价格支撑强

Group 1 - Recent copper prices have been fluctuating at high levels, with domestic copper prices ranging between 78,000-80,000 CNY/ton and London copper prices between 9,600-9,900 USD/ton, indicating a stable market with both upper and lower limits [4] - The Federal Reserve Chairman's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, with the probability now at 85.2% [7][8] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of risk, with a slowdown in job growth and a potential increase in unemployment rates due to reduced immigration affecting labor supply [7][8] Group 2 - On the supply side, tight copper raw material supply and the approaching traditional peak season are positive factors, while the implementation of U.S. copper tariffs is expected to increase supply outside the U.S. [12] - Global copper production from major mining companies saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with some companies reducing their production guidance for the year [12][15] - The recent policy changes regarding recycled copper may lead to increased costs for recycling companies, potentially reducing their output and increasing refined copper consumption [15] Group 3 - Downstream demand for copper is expected to remain resilient despite weak real estate data and declining production in the home appliance sector, with a slight increase in refined copper consumption anticipated in August [16] - The U.S. copper tariffs have led to a significant increase in domestic copper inventories, and the expected drop in imports post-tariff implementation may increase supply pressure in the market [19] - Overall, if global trade conditions do not worsen, copper prices are expected to stabilize and trend upwards due to macroeconomic and supply-demand support [22]