管涛：美联储正被置于三重险境 | 立方大家谈

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in maintaining its independence and credibility amid political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and the implications for U.S. monetary policy and inflation expectations. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The Fed's independence has been a cornerstone of the U.S. dollar's international credibility since the 1951 agreement that ended the binding of Fed rates to government bond rates [1] - Trump's interventions in Fed operations have contributed to a significant decline in the dollar index, indicating a potential loss of confidence in the dollar [1] - The Fed is currently in a precarious position with declining dollar credibility and a weakening dollar exchange rate [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation expectations have risen sharply, with one-year and five-year expectations reaching 6.6% and 4.4%, respectively, the highest since 1981 and 1991 [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, with core CPI at 3.0%, indicating increasing inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase, suggesting that supply-side inflation effects from tariffs are beginning to manifest [3] Group 3: Employment Market Trends - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, with a downward revision of non-farm payrolls for May and June by 253,000 jobs, a reduction of 88.5% [4] - July's initial non-farm payroll increase was only 73,000, significantly below market expectations [4] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, but the labor participation rate has declined, indicating a potential labor supply issue [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Challenges - Fed Chair Powell indicated potential interest rate cuts in September, citing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [5] - The Fed's policy framework has shifted, moving away from the "flexible average inflation targeting" approach, emphasizing the need to combat inflation [6] - Powell's cautious stance reflects the delicate balance between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures [6] Group 5: Political Interference and Market Reactions - Trump's aggressive trade policies and public criticism of the Fed have raised concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [9] - The potential for Trump to influence Fed decisions through appointments could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [11] - Following Trump's dismissal of a Fed board member, market reactions included a steepening of the yield curve, indicating expectations for aggressive rate cuts [12]