Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded TianNeng Power's revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 30% and 28% to 61.21 billion and 65.51 billion yuan respectively, due to a focus on core business and a gradual contraction of trade operations [1] - The firm also lowered net profit forecasts for the same years by 17% to 1.803 billion and 2.157 billion yuan, citing weaker-than-expected recovery in the aftermarket demand and non-operating fluctuations [1] - Despite these downgrades, CICC remains optimistic about the company's position in the two-wheeler market and the potential for growth from lithium battery business and overseas market expansion, maintaining a target price of 8.5 HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported 1H25 revenue of 24.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 51.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25 was 820 million yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year but up 282.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The significant revenue drop was attributed to the contraction of trade operations and a slowdown in aftermarket demand, alongside reduced government subsidies and interest income [2] Group 2: Product Performance - The company's lead-acid battery shipments in 1H25 slightly decreased, with a total shipment of 53.5-54 GWh, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.5-5% [2] - Revenue from lead-acid batteries was approximately 18.29 billion yuan, down about 5% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to an estimated 14.5-15%, an increase of 1.5-2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The two-wheeler front-mounted market saw a recovery due to new national standards and trade-in policies, while the aftermarket faced challenges from macroeconomic conditions [2] Group 3: Lithium Battery Business - The lithium battery segment achieved revenue of 501 million yuan in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 174.6%, driven by domestic demand and exports in the new energy sector [3] - The company experienced a significant reduction in losses within the lithium battery business due to improved operational efficiency and scale effects [3] Group 4: Non-Operating Income Impact - Non-operating income decreased significantly, with government subsidies and VAT refunds down by 175 million yuan year-on-year, and futures income reduced by approximately 150 million yuan [4] - Interest income also fell by about 176 million yuan due to lower deposit rates, further impacting the overall profit [4]
中金：维持天能动力(00819)跑赢行业评级 目标价8.5港元