华安期货：9月1日沪铜区间震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, influenced by macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand trends [1][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - International oil prices are rising, providing support for copper prices. The weakening prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine, as stated by German Chancellor Merz, have contributed to this increase [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are being digested, with a focus on upcoming employment data. The overall pace of rate cuts will depend on subsequent economic indicators [3]. Supply Side - There have been no significant changes on the supply side. As of August 28, the copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) was reported at -41.06 USD per dry ton. Additionally, domestic copper concentrate port inventories reached 550,000 tons as of August 29, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous period [3]. - According to Mysteel's research, domestic smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and production plans remain at relatively high expectations [3]. Demand Side - The market is entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with an overall positive outlook remaining unchanged. In terms of industry demand, the electricity grid sector shows resilience, while the real estate-related sectors may continue to exhibit weakness [3]. Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to continue its range-bound operation [3].