芦哲：联邦巡回法院裁定特朗普征收IEEPA对等关税违法——海外周报

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and the mild PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in technology stocks caused a reversal in stock gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The announcement of Cook's dismissal raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index dropped by 0.06% to 97.77, while spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Q2 GDP revision showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +3.3%, exceeding the expected +3.1%. Fixed asset investment's contribution was revised up from +0.08% to +0.59%, and consumption's contribution was adjusted from +0.98% to +1.07%. Analysts have slightly raised their Q3 growth expectations, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% for Q3 [3][4]. Group 3: Political Developments - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Federal Reserve's establishment in 1913, raising market concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, and the case is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 [4][5].