中金：维持北京控股跑赢行业评级 目标价35港元

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Beijing Enterprises Holdings (00392) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 35, indicating an 8.2% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: 1H25 Performance - In 1H25, Beijing Gas reported total natural gas sales of 12.51 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with pipeline gas sales in Beijing at 9.19 billion cubic meters, down 1.7% year-on-year [2] - The pre-tax profit from natural gas distribution and trading business reached HKD 970 million, up 13.2% year-on-year [2] - The company confirmed investment income from joint ventures, including 1.26 billion from the National Pipeline Beijing, 330 million from VCNG, 310 million from China Gas, and 370 million from Beijing Waterworks, maintaining overall stability [2] Group 2: LNG Processing Agreement - Beijing Gas signed a three-year processing agreement for 4.5 million tons of LNG with major domestic suppliers, which is expected to enhance the stability of its profitability [3] - The agreement is anticipated to partially offset the increased costs associated with the operation of the Nangang LNG project, thereby improving overall profitability [3] Group 3: Debt Structure Optimization - The company benefited from lower domestic financing rates and converted some foreign currency debt to RMB, resulting in a reduction of over HKD 100 million in financial expenses year-on-year [4] - There is potential for a decrease in interest-bearing liabilities as subsidiary dividends are expected to increase [4] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company maintained an interim dividend of HKD 0.85 per share for 1H25, with management committing to a full-year dividend of at least HKD 1.62 per share, based on the higher of this amount or 35% of operating profit for 2025 [5] - Given the stable utility nature of the business and nearing completion of capital expenditure cycles, there is potential for long-term dividend increases [5]