Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 04:33Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Shenzhen's economy shows resilience under pressure, with internal demand and industrial upgrades being key to breaking through challenges [1][7] - The overall trend indicates a passive inventory replenishment phase in the industrial sector, with a slowdown in both old and new industrial momentum [2][3] Industrial Performance - From January to February 2025, Shenzhen's industrial enterprises entered a passive replenishment phase, with revenue growth slowing to 2.9%, down 7.3 percentage points from December 2024 [2][14] - The increase in inventory is attributed to seasonal factors and the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a backlog in inventory despite a high base from the previous year [2][12] New and Old Industrial Dynamics - The transition between old and new industrial momentum in Shenzhen shows a simultaneous weakening, contrasting with improvements seen in Beijing and Shanghai [3][26] - The old momentum factor decreased by 0.1182, while the new momentum factor fell by 0.0305, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [3][25] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector in Shenzhen remains a bright spot, with first-hand housing transaction area reaching 979,000 square meters, up 48.9% year-on-year, and second-hand housing transactions increasing by 146.6% [4][30] - The market is characterized by a "price for volume" strategy, with a slight recovery in second-hand housing prices despite a decline compared to the previous quarter [4][34] Emerging Industries - The new energy vehicle sector shows significant growth, with BYD's sales reaching 623,000 units, a 92.5% increase year-on-year, driven by new model releases and overseas market expansion [5][6] - However, there is a caution regarding reliance on a single leading enterprise, emphasizing the need for diversification in the industrial chain [5][6] Export Dynamics - Shenzhen's export value for January-February 2025 was 367.33 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year, yet still the highest in the country for this period [7][13] - The structure of exports shows a decline in the proportion of exports to the U.S. and Europe, while increasing shares to emerging markets like Saudi Arabia, indicating a shift towards market diversification [7][13] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in Shenzhen saw a decline of 2.9% year-on-year in January-February, reflecting a contraction in non-essential consumption amid high living costs [4][19] - Online retail is gradually recovering, with a 1.0% growth in January-February, supported by promotional activities and policy incentives [6][19]