Group 1 - Foreign investors targeting China in 2025 must navigate both the significant increase in US-China tariffs and the concurrent rise in incentives for foreign capital from Beijing [1][9] - Tariffs are identified as the fastest rising cost factor and the strongest incentive for companies to localize operations [1][15] - The US has implemented a 10% uniform tariff on all imports and punitive tariffs up to 145% on targeted Chinese goods, raising the average effective tariff to approximately 22%, the highest level since 1909 [6][15] Group 2 - The EU has raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 45.3% and initiated negotiations to convert tariffs into minimum price commitments, highlighting the rapid changes in tariff barriers [3] - Toyota's investment of 146 billion yen (approximately 20 billion USD) in a wholly-owned Lexus electric vehicle factory near Shanghai exemplifies a "produce locally, sell locally" strategy to mitigate US and EU tariffs [5] - The Chinese government has introduced measures such as the "Stabilizing Foreign Investment Action Plan" to ease market access and accelerate license approvals, along with tax incentives for reinvested profits [9][15] Group 3 - The establishment of 22 free trade zones with a "one chapter, one license" registration system and negative list industry access aims to reduce customs clearance delays and associated tariff financing costs [10] - Local subsidies, such as Guangzhou's reimbursement of up to 20,000 RMB (approximately 2,800 USD) for clean technology imports, are part of a broader competition to lower overall tariff rates [11] - Products manufactured in China that comply with EU origin rules can enjoy zero or low tariffs when entering 14 partner economies under RCEP, providing a buffer against US/EU profit losses [12] Group 4 - Despite a decline in the value of foreign direct investment in Q1 2025, the number of newly registered foreign-invested enterprises increased by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating continued attractiveness for technology-focused investors [15] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a dual-market manufacturing approach, designing high-value products in China while arranging final assembly through ASEAN RCEP hubs to maintain origin flexibility [16] - The need for companies to prepare for varying tariff scenarios (0%, 45%, and 145%) in investment return predictions is emphasized, with internal rate of return fluctuations projected between 11-18 percentage points [16]
2025年的关税格局将如何影响外资在华设立公司的决策？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 05:29