Core Insights - The luxury housing market in key cities is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, with a significant increase in transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan [2][3] - The resilience of luxury home sales is attributed to increased supply, product upgrades, and the investment value of properties in core areas amid economic challenges [2][3][24] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, 20 key cities recorded 21,000 transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, significantly higher than the 5% increase in the broader new housing market [3][12] - The sales growth in second and third-tier cities is particularly notable, with a 37% year-on-year increase in transactions compared to a 15% increase in first-tier cities [3][12] Market Segmentation - The proportion of high-end residential sales priced between 10 million and 30 million yuan has increased significantly in cities like Shanghai and Beijing, with both cities surpassing 20% in this segment [6][12] - Notable increases in the share of high-end properties priced between 30 million and 50 million yuan were observed in cities like Xiamen, where the share rose from 0.06% to 0.23% [6][12] Supply Dynamics - The proportion of high-premium land parcels has risen, with 20.86% of land parcels sold in the first half of 2025 having a premium rate exceeding 20%, marking a 13.08 percentage point increase from 2024 [22][24] - Cities like Ningbo and Xiamen have experienced a surge in luxury housing supply, with Ningbo seeing a 113% year-on-year increase in new luxury home supply [24][30] Product Characteristics - The luxury housing market is characterized by a shift towards larger units, with properties over 180 square meters accounting for 46% of transactions, although the concentration in this segment is declining [16][19] - The introduction of new housing regulations has led to significant upgrades in new luxury products, enhancing their appeal compared to second-hand properties [28][30] Regional Variations - The luxury market in first-tier cities is increasingly concentrated, with Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou accounting for 80% of the market share [14][15] - In contrast, cities like Suzhou and Hangzhou still see a significant proportion of transactions in the 200-250 square meter range, although this segment is experiencing a year-on-year decline [21][22] Future Outlook - The anticipated supply of luxury homes in the second half of 2025 is expected to exceed 775 million square meters, with cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu projected to see significant new supply [30][32] - The market dynamics suggest a potential oversupply in many cities, which may lead to challenges in the absorption of high-end products [32]
深度研究丨千万豪宅热销，重点城市高端产品竞争白热化
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 05:51