邓正红能源软实力：原油市场面临“超预期过剩”风险 页岩油盈亏平衡点是关键

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for an "unexpected surplus" in the oil market by 2025 due to policy overreach and supply-demand mismatches, alongside geopolitical risks and tariff impacts reshaping the oil market landscape [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to a three-month low, indicating market concerns that tariffs may harm the economy, leading to fears of global supply exceeding demand in the coming quarters [1] - OPEC's production increase and tariff threats are creating a supply-demand squeeze, with warnings that oil prices may lack upward momentum [1] - The current oil price pressure is attributed to a systemic collapse of soft power factors, with a notable non-linear relationship between policy uncertainty and demand suppression when uncertainty exceeds 90 days [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - OPEC's actual daily production increase in July reached 820,000 barrels, coupled with a continuous 14-week accumulation of global oil inventories, resulting in a daily supply-demand gap of -1.7 million barrels [1] - The model indicates that if the current policy path continues, the surplus in Q4 could exceed 2.1 million barrels, with the oil soft power index (OSPI) potentially dropping to 35.7, below the critical threshold of 50 [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The model predicts that the average daily demand could decrease by 150,000 to 200,000 barrels due to the spillover effects of tariff policies [3] - Non-OPEC countries are expected to increase daily supply by 1.6 million barrels, significantly surpassing the International Energy Agency's forecast of 1.03 million barrels for daily demand growth [3] - The combination of rising U.S. commercial oil inventories and a strong dollar, driven by hawkish Federal Reserve policies, is creating compounded negative pressures on the market [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The effectiveness of traditional geopolitical risk premiums has diminished, with the support for oil prices from such risks dropping from $4.20 per barrel in 2024 to $1.50 per barrel currently, indicating a shift in market pricing power towards macroeconomic factors [2] - U.S. tariff policies are creating a "soft power backlash," accelerating the formation of a multipolar order and weakening the effectiveness of traditional U.S. sanctions [2]