白银涨破40美元

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 1, silver prices reached $40.44 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% daily increase [2]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, including gold, which also hit new highs since April [5]. - The primary driver of this surge is the market's growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals [8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by increasing demand for clean energy technologies such as solar panels [10]. - Strong fundamentals have attracted significant investment, with silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing continuous inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2020 [11]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has added momentum to the price increase, as it signals potential government actions to reduce import reliance and boost domestic production [13][14]. - Market analysts suggest that this policy could lead to the imposition of high import tariffs, potentially up to 50%, due to the U.S.'s high dependency on silver imports, which stands at 64% [15][16]. - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook, projecting silver prices could reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, recommending investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [17].