金属的“疯狂星期一”？黄金逼近历史高点，白银创十余年新高

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices are hovering around $3480, nearing historical highs, while silver has surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by geopolitical tensions and financial uncertainty [1] - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is increasing due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following Trump's frequent attacks on it [1][3] - Silver is gaining attention not only as a precious metal but also for its industrial applications in clean energy technologies, leading to a projected fifth year of supply shortages [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - A key employment report is expected to show an addition of 75,000 jobs in August, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which may influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy easing [5] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating persistent inflation [6] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month is currently priced at 87% by traders, influenced by dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly [7][8] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Implications - A federal appeals court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegally imposed under an emergency law, although these tariffs remain in place during the appeal process, which may affect investor confidence [3][9] - The ongoing negotiations with trade partners, despite the court ruling, suggest that trade dynamics will continue to influence market conditions and investor sentiment [9]