印尼骚乱背后，谁在博弈？

Group 1 - The article discusses the political and economic turmoil in Indonesia following the election of President Prabowo, highlighting public dissatisfaction with government policies [6][8] - Prabowo's economic policies aim for an 8% GDP growth while avoiding fiscal deficits, which has led to tension among the elite and dissatisfaction among vulnerable groups [6][7] - Specific policies, such as providing free lunches for students, have faced criticism due to budget constraints and perceived inequities, leading to further unrest [7][8] Group 2 - Historical context is provided, comparing current events to past political upheavals in Indonesia, particularly in 1965 and 1998, where elite power struggles were masked by public dissent [13][17] - The article suggests that the current unrest is driven by economic decline and internal elite conflicts, with the potential for manipulation of public sentiment by political factions [13][18] - The dynamics between political factions, including Prabowo, Jokowi, and opposition groups, are analyzed, indicating a complex interplay of power and public support [19][20] Group 3 - The potential outcomes of the current political situation are discussed, with Prabowo possibly consolidating power while navigating opposition from both Jokowi and other factions [25] - The article posits that despite the turmoil, there is a foundational logic in Indonesian society that seeks stability, suggesting that the ultimate outcome may not be as dire as it appears [25]