hbky(SH:600985) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-01 06:41Core Viewpoint - The company's performance is significantly impacted by declining market demand, with the current period being the most challenging year-on-year. However, the company is positioned as a growth stock in the coking coal sector, with potential industry increments expected in 2025-2026 [1] Financial Performance - The company maintained a "Buy" rating, with total revenue of 20.682 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 44.58%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.032 billion yuan, down 64.85%, slightly below market expectations. In Q2, revenue was 10.08 billion yuan, a decline of 49.47%, and net profit was 340 million yuan, down 74.7% [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.72, 1.21, and 1.91 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 14.64 yuan based on a 12x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Coal Business Performance - The coal business is still affected by the Xinhu mine, but sales volume began to recover in Q2 2025. The commodity coal production in H1 2025 was 8.908 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, while sales were 6.476 million tons, down 19.38%. Q2 production was 4.6 million tons, showing a 30,000-ton increase from Q1 [3] - The average selling price of commodity coal in Q2 was 747 yuan/ton, a decrease of 364 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cost per ton decreased nearly 100 yuan to 425 yuan/ton due to improved cost control and increased production [3] - Expectations for Q3 2025 indicate a significant improvement in performance due to increased sales and price adjustments [3] Coking and Ethanol Business - The coking business negatively impacted performance, with H1 2025 coking production at 1.7 million tons, roughly flat, and sales at 1.68 million tons, down 1.2%. The average selling price was 1,418 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 33% [4] - The company reported a loss of 206 million yuan in H1 2025 but is expected to turn profitable in Q3. The official launch of the ethanol project contributed positively, with H1 production of 229,000 tons and sales of 220,000 tons at an average price of 4,895 yuan/ton [4] Future Growth Potential - The company is identified as a growth stock in the coking coal sector, with expected industry increments in 2025-2026. Upcoming projects include the DMC project with a new capacity of 100,000 tons/year and the ethanol project with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year [4] - Additional capacity of 8 million tons from the Inner Mongolia Taoqitu coal mine and other projects are expected to be completed by 2025 [4]