Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-01 07:25Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has named Alibaba as "China's Best AI Enabler" and raised its target price for Alibaba's U.S. stock from $150 to $165, driven by strong growth in Alibaba Cloud due to AI [1][6]. Group 1: AI-Driven Cloud Business Acceleration - Alibaba Cloud is seen as the main platform for capturing AI opportunities, achieving a 26% year-on-year growth in the first fiscal quarter, exceeding market expectations [2]. - AI-related revenue has shown triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters and now accounts for over 20% of Alibaba Cloud's total revenue, one of the highest ratios globally [2][3]. - The growth momentum for Alibaba Cloud is expected to continue, driven by strong industry demand, upgraded product offerings, and strategic partnerships with companies like SAP [2][3]. Group 2: Short-Term Pain from Instant E-commerce Investment - Alibaba is incurring significant short-term costs due to heavy investments in the instant e-commerce sector, with an estimated investment of approximately 110 billion RMB in the first fiscal quarter [4][5]. - The report predicts that losses in the instant e-commerce segment will increase from a previous estimate of 20 billion RMB to 35 billion RMB in the second fiscal quarter, indicating a peak in investment [5]. - The total investment forecast for instant e-commerce for the current fiscal year has been raised from 50 billion RMB to 80 billion RMB, impacting profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 [5]. Group 3: Long-Term Value Outlook - Despite short-term profitability pressures, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about Alibaba's long-term value, raising the valuation of Alibaba Cloud from $60 to $67 per share to reflect its growth potential in the AI era [6]. - The report emphasizes that while the market should monitor the return on investment in the instant e-commerce business, Alibaba, with the largest cloud infrastructure in China, is well-positioned to capture the growth in AI-related demand [6].