白银涨破40美元，2011年来首次！

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by various factors including monetary policy expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, reaching $40.44 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, such as gold, which also reached new highs since April [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the growing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like silver [5]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies, such as solar panels [6]. - There has been a continuous inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the longest streak of inflows since 2020 [6]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list is seen as a potential precursor to imposing high import tariffs, which could further boost silver prices [8][9]. - Analysts note that the U.S. relies heavily on silver imports, with a dependency rate of 64%, and the potential for tariffs has not been fully priced into the market [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver, projecting prices to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, and recommends investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [10].