Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-01 08:02Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities indicates that BYD's performance may have bottomed out in Q2 2025, with short-term profitability under pressure due to intensified domestic competition, but ongoing investments in technology upgrades and rapid overseas expansion are expected to create momentum for a potential profit turnaround in 2026 [1][2]. Financial Performance - BYD's Q2 performance fell short of market expectations, with gross profit margin (GPM) dropping to 16.3%, the lowest since Q3 2022, and operating profit margin (OPM) declining to 1.4%, marking a five-year low [1][4]. - The company reported a net profit of 6.4 billion CNY in Q2, a year-on-year decrease of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 31% [5]. Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to several factors: early incentives paid to dealers to cope with competition, a negative operating leverage effect due to capacity growth not keeping pace with business scale, and a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 71% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. Market Strategy and Outlook - BYD's "Smart Driving Equality" initiative in 2025 did not meet expectations, as price remains a more decisive factor than smart driving features in the Chinese market, particularly in the sub-200,000 CNY segment [6]. - Nomura expects only gradual improvement in BYD's performance for the remainder of 2025, especially in the Chinese market, but believes that lessons learned will prepare the company for a strategic turnaround in 2026 [6]. Overseas Expansion - Despite challenges in the domestic market, BYD's overseas business is emerging as a new growth engine, with overseas sales in the first half of 2025 reaching 464,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 128% [7]. - The company’s new factory in Brazil began production in July 2025, and its fleet for exports has expanded to eight ships, further enhancing its overseas growth potential [7]. Profit Forecast and Rating - Nomura has revised down its profit forecasts for BYD for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with passenger vehicle sales estimates lowered by 10-11% and total revenue estimates down by 9% [8]. - Despite the downward revisions, Nomura maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for revenue and 18% for profit from 2024 to 2027 [8].