Hinton神预言，斯坦福惊人实锤：00后20%初级IT岗蒸发，AI失业潮来了

Core Insights - AI is significantly impacting the employment landscape for young individuals in the U.S., particularly those aged 22-25, leading to a notable decline in job opportunities for this demographic [1][4][6] Group 1: Employment Trends - The employment rate for young individuals (ages 22-25) has dropped by 13% in roles most susceptible to AI replacement over the past three years [1][4] - Entry-level positions are disappearing rapidly, while AI-assisted roles remain largely unaffected [4][6] - Employment for older, more experienced workers is stable, contrasting sharply with the struggles faced by younger job seekers [4][6] Group 2: AI's Impact on Job Types - In highly AI-penetrated roles such as software development and customer service, the employment rate for young individuals is declining quickly [4][6] - Conversely, jobs requiring physical presence and manual labor, such as nursing and caregiving, are less affected by AI and are seeing employment growth among younger workers [28][30] Group 3: Structural Changes in the Labor Market - The introduction of generative AI technologies has led to a significant drop in entry-level software engineering positions, with employment numbers for 22-25-year-olds decreasing nearly 20% since the peak at the end of 2022 [21][23] - The overall employment growth for younger individuals has stagnated since late 2022, while older age groups continue to see job growth [32][35] Group 4: Salary Trends - Despite the decline in employment numbers, salary growth across different age groups and job types has not shown significant differences [45][47] - The lack of salary increase in the face of declining job opportunities raises questions about the underlying factors influencing these trends [47][49] Group 5: Explanatory Factors - Two primary explanations for the concentrated impact of AI on young workers are proposed: the overlap of AI's learning curve with formal education and companies pausing hiring during the AI experimentation phase [53][56][58] - The research indicates that while AI is a significant factor, it is not the sole explanation for the employment trends observed among young individuals [51][52]