快递涨价，第一批“9.9包邮”商家撑不住了？

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in Guangdong has initiated a significant price increase, impacting e-commerce sellers, particularly those relying on low-margin, high-volume sales models like "9.9包邮" [1][2][5] Group 1: Price Increase Details - Starting August 4, 2023, the Guangdong Postal Administration raised the base price for express delivery of light packages (0.3kg and below) by 0.4 yuan, resulting in an average price exceeding 1.4 yuan per package, marking a price increase of over 40% [2][4] - The price increase has been rapid and unprecedented, with many express companies implementing the new pricing within two days of notification [2][4] - The price adjustment is part of a broader "anti-involution" movement within the express delivery sector, aimed at stabilizing the market after years of price wars [2][4][19] Group 2: Impact on E-commerce Sellers - E-commerce sellers, especially those with low-priced products, are facing severe profit compression due to rising delivery costs, with some reporting a drop in daily orders by as much as 62.5% [8][11][12] - For example, a seller of a 9.9 yuan product has seen their profit per item decrease from 2 yuan to 1.5 yuan due to increased shipping costs, leading to a significant monthly profit reduction [9][11] - Many sellers are now forced to consider raising product prices, but fear losing customers due to price sensitivity [16][17] Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - Some sellers are exploring alternative shipping options, such as moving inventory to provinces with lower shipping costs, like Jiangxi and Hunan, to mitigate the impact of rising prices in Guangdong [15][19] - The ongoing price increases are expected to spread to other provinces, potentially affecting the entire e-commerce landscape [2][7][15] - The express delivery price hikes are seen as a necessary step to break the cycle of unsustainable low pricing in the industry, although they create immediate challenges for many small and medium-sized e-commerce businesses [14][19]