ETO Markets 市场洞察：降息前夜黄金暴走，是最后的疯狂，还是牛市开端？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward cycle, with international gold prices showing strong performance and technical indicators suggesting robust buying support. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - In August, international gold prices increased by 4.81%, marking the best monthly performance in nearly four months, with spot gold closing at $3448.01 per ounce and reaching a high of $3453.82, just 0.15% away from the historical peak in April [1] - As of September, gold prices are maintaining high levels, trading within the $3445 range, indicating strong buying support from a technical perspective [1] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. PCE price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, which has increased the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 85% to 87% [3] - Lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and weaken the dollar's attractiveness, creating a dual positive effect for gold prices [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risk Factors - The U.S. dollar index fell by 2.2% in August, the largest monthly decline in several months, enhancing gold's appeal to non-U.S. currency investors [4] - The U.S. bond market is showing divergence, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 33 basis points to 3.619%, reflecting expectations of lower short-term rates, while long-term yields slightly increased due to month-end repositioning [4] Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for August is a focal point for the market; weak data could accelerate rate cut expectations and push gold prices to new highs, while strong data may suppress short-term gains [5] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, indicating growing public concern over rising prices, which may further enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Outlook - In a Kitco gold survey, 86% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue rising next week, with no bearish views, while 68% of online poll participants are optimistic about price increases [7] - The ability of gold prices to break historical highs will depend on two main factors: the confirmation of economic cooling trends from September employment data and the dovishness of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [8]