崔东树：预计2025年全国乘用车市场零售同比增长10%

Core Insights - The article highlights the changing dynamics of the Chinese passenger car market, indicating a significant shift towards a "strong North, weak South" pattern in market performance, with expectations of a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales by 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Regional Market Trends - The northern car market is showing strong growth, particularly in Northeast and North China, while the southern regions are underperforming despite better economic conditions [2][3] - By July 2025, the northern market's share increased by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, and by 5.6 percentage points compared to 2022, indicating a robust upward trend [2] - The central region's market share also improved, with a 1.5 percentage point increase year-on-year in July 2025, suggesting a positive trend in the middle regions [2] Group 2: Policy Impact on Market Structure - Government subsidies are favoring low-end and economic vehicles, leading to a recovery in the economy segment, particularly benefiting A00 and A0 class electric vehicles in Northern and Northeast regions [1][3] - The "Two New" subsidy policy is seen as a fair approach, significantly benefiting the development of small and micro electric vehicles [1][6] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Market Analysis - The new energy vehicle market is expected to perform strongly in 2025, with both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles showing positive trends [5] - In Northern regions, the demand for traditional fuel vehicles remains high, with fuel vehicles still accounting for about 60% of the market, while Eastern regions have seen new energy vehicles surpassing 50% [5] Group 4: Changes in Vehicle Structure - The SUV segment is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the central and western regions, driven by geographical factors that favor SUV demand [4] - The overall market structure is shifting towards more affordable electric vehicles due to government incentives, which are effectively stimulating consumer interest [6][7]