Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for significant political and military changes in the Middle East, emphasizing the sensitivity and complexity of the current situation [1] - The Lebanese military has received authorization to initiate a sensitive operation aimed at ensuring national security and border stability, although specific operational details remain undisclosed [3] - A U.S.-backed plan aims to disarm Hezbollah and remove weapons from Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, which is seen as a key international effort to enhance internal security and facilitate the goal of a unified national armed force [5] Group 2 - Internal factors contributing to the Lebanese government's strong stance include a shift in the armed dynamics within Palestinian refugee camps, where tensions between the military and local armed groups have eased, allowing for a unified national action [5] - The Lebanese government perceives the disarmament of Hezbollah as increasingly feasible due to external pressures, particularly following significant losses Hezbollah suffered during the last conflict with Israel, where approximately 70% of its missile stockpile was destroyed [5] - The changing geopolitical landscape, including the weakening of Iranian support for Hezbollah due to the instability in Syria, further complicates the situation for Hezbollah and enhances the Lebanese government's position [5] Group 3 - The article notes that the only remaining force capable of resisting in the so-called "axis of resistance" is the Houthis, who are now facing increased challenges following significant losses in recent Israeli airstrikes [9] - If the issues surrounding Hamas and Hezbollah are resolved, the Houthis may become the next target for U.S. and allied forces in the region, indicating a potential shift in focus for regional power dynamics [9] - The disintegration of the "axis of resistance" could lead to more Arab nations joining the Abraham Accords, fundamentally altering the balance of power and alliances in the region, while further constraining Iran's strategic space [9]
终究还是以色列笑到最后,抵抗之弧濒临瓦解,一场内战或即将爆发
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 09:50