Ultima Markets黄金周度预测：多头仍然掌控局面，关注重点美国经济数据

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen above $3,400, reaching a new monthly high, driven by a combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold (XAU/USD) has maintained a bullish momentum, climbing to its highest level since late July, surpassing $3,400 [2]. - The upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including business activity and employment figures, may influence market perceptions of Federal Reserve policy and drive short-term movements in XAU/USD [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The U.S. dollar (USD) experienced a rebound after a significant drop, but concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have limited its ability to sustain gains [3]. - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the second quarter GDP growth rate from an initial estimate of 3% to 3.3%, providing some support to the dollar [4]. - The annual inflation rate in the U.S. remained at 2.6% in July, with the core PCE price index rising to 2.9%, aligning with analyst expectations [4]. Group 3: Upcoming Data and Expectations - Investors are focusing on upcoming U.S. PMI and NFP data, with expectations for a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI for August [5]. - The market currently anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating limited downside for the dollar even if the NFP data is disappointing [5]. - If NFP growth exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, market participants may lean towards two rate cuts this year, potentially leading to a bearish trend for XAU/USD [6].