Cai Fu Zai Xian·2025-09-01 10:06Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "Moutai Curse," where stocks that surpass the market value of Kweichow Moutai tend to experience significant declines shortly thereafter, often impacting the broader market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Stocks that surpass Moutai's market value are typically from trending industries, particularly technology, which can experience explosive short-term growth but lack long-term sustainability [2][3]. - The technology sector's growth is driven by valuation increases, while the liquor industry, exemplified by Moutai, is driven by consistent performance metrics such as stable earnings growth, high cash flow, and substantial dividends [2][3]. Group 2: Time and Sustainability - The concept of time is crucial in evaluating stock performance; a stock may surpass Moutai today but could collapse in the future, indicating that short-term gains do not equate to long-term success [3]. - Moutai remains a benchmark in the market, symbolizing stability and long-term growth potential, which is why it is often used as a standard for comparison [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The recent surpassing of Moutai by Cambrian Technology in the semiconductor sector suggests a shift in China's economic landscape, moving from traditional real estate-driven growth to innovation-driven growth [3]. - Cambrian Technology's current valuation is significantly high, with a market cap of 600 billion and a projected annual profit of 20 billion, leading to a price-to-earnings ratio of 300, which is five times that of industry leader Nvidia [3].