Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-01 10:16Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China Aluminum (601600)(02600) achieved a net profit of 7.1 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with earnings per share of 0.412 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs has raised its profit forecast for China Aluminum for 2025-2026 by 11% to 15%, expecting regular net profits to remain strong at 13.3 billion RMB in 2025 and 14 billion RMB in 2026 [1] - The free cash flow yield for the next two years is projected to reach 22% [1] Price Forecasts - The target price for China Aluminum's H-shares has been increased from 6.3 HKD to 7.6 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Margin Adjustments - The forecast for alumina gross margins has been raised by 30% to 70% for the next two years, reflecting higher average selling prices achieved in the first half of the year [1] - However, due to expected acceleration in imports from Guinea, the profit forecast for self-supplied bauxite alumina has been lowered, with import bauxite prices adjusted down from 90 USD per ton to 75 USD per ton for the second half of this year through 2026 [1] - The alumina production forecast for 2026 has been increased by 9%, reflecting the full production of the Guangxi Huasheng project [1] - The aluminum gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026 have been reduced by 12% to 18%, reflecting higher operating costs observed in the first half of the year, with unit operating cost estimates raised by 5% to 6% [1]