Ge Long Hui·2025-09-01 11:08Core Viewpoint - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to anticipated challenges in sales and profitability, particularly influenced by the performance of the i6 model and ongoing market competition [1][2][3] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down from 166.2 billion, 215.6 billion, and 244.0 billion to 120.9 billion, 154.4 billion, and 182.8 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16.3%, 27.8%, and 18.3% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have been reduced from 11.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 22.8 billion to 5.9 billion, 9.4 billion, and 13.5 billion, with corresponding price-to-sales (PS) ratios of 1.5, 1.2, and 1.0 and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 30.5, 19.3, and 13.6 [1] Group 2: Q2 Performance Insights - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 30.25 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17%, with vehicle deliveries slightly exceeding revised guidance at 111,000 units [2] - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 6,000 to 260,000, attributed to financial subsidies and sales incentives, while the gross margin fell by 0.4 percentage points to 20.1% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 was 1.47 billion, down 2% year-on-year but up 45% quarter-on-quarter, with a per vehicle net profit of approximately 13,000 [2] Group 3: Future Sales and Product Strategy - The sales performance in 2025 is expected to heavily depend on the i6 model's ability to reverse current trends, with guidance for Q3 2025 indicating revenue between 24.8 billion and 26.2 billion and deliveries of 90,000 to 95,000 units [3] - The company plans to upgrade its entire range of AD Max models in September 2025, enhancing the VLA system, which is anticipated to significantly improve the smart driving experience [3] - The introduction of self-developed chips in 2026 is expected to support the company's goal of achieving Level 4 autonomous driving by 2027, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market [3]