Group 1 - The uncertainty of US policies should not overshadow other trends and market fundamentals, as macro cycles remain important [2] - Central banks in Europe, Latin America, and Asia are in the mid to late stages of easing cycles, which began in 2024, potentially boosting domestic demand [2] - The gradual benefits from these trends may significantly enhance domestic demand in the coming quarters, creating investment opportunities in specific economies or sectors [2] Group 2 - Germany is moving away from fiscal conservatism, with increased investment and defense spending expected to drive GDP growth to an average of 1.5% between 2027-28 [7] - The shift from excessive saving to more investment and consumption is a positive factor for the Eurozone [7] Group 3 - China is focusing on stimulating private consumption rather than infrastructure-led fiscal stimulus, although consumer spending remains cautious due to ongoing pressures from the real estate sector [10] - A more substantial consumption-driven stimulus plan is seen as an upside risk for China's economy [10] - The competitive landscape in industries like electronics continues to thrive despite challenges, with targeted industrial policies expected to enhance urban competitiveness [10] Group 4 - Technological advancements, particularly in AI and semiconductor demand, are driving capital expenditures and economic growth in regions like the US, Middle East, and parts of Asia [11] - The investment cycle in technology is expected to persist over the coming years, despite potential risks [11] Group 5 - New technologies, influenced by tech nationalism, are becoming a focal point for governments, with the US aiming to consolidate its control over technology [14] - Despite external challenges, governments retain significant control over their business environments, which is expected to improve in the coming years [14] - India is projected to be the fastest-growing major economy from 2025-29, with ongoing improvements in its business environment [14]
【报告下载】EIU全球展望｜2025年9月（下）
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 12:27