泸州老窖(000568)：蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, with revenue at 7.102 billion (-7.97%) and net profit at 3.070 billion (-11.10%) [1] Revenue Summary - Q2 2025 revenue was 7.102 billion, a decrease of 7.97%, while H1 2025 revenue was 16.454 billion, down 2.67% [1] - The company experienced rational growth in revenue, with mid-to-high-end and other liquor categories showing declines of 1.1% and 17.0% respectively in H1 2025 [3] - The company added 2 new domestic distributors during H1 2025, with traditional channel revenue down 4.0% and emerging channel revenue up 27.6% [3] Profit Summary - The gross margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 0.95 percentage points to 87.9%, primarily due to product mix issues [4] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 fell by 1.5 percentage points to 43.2%, influenced by rising tax and additional charges [4] Financial Quality Summary - Sales cash receipts decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, but the willingness for channel cooperation remained strong [5] - Accounts receivable financing increased by 210 million in Q2 2025, indicating that distributors are increasingly using notes for payments [5] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating growth in H2 2025 through refined channel strategies and new product launches [6] - Updated profit forecasts predict revenues of 29.474 billion, 30.203 billion, and 33.375 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 12.472 billion, 12.947 billion, and 14.457 billion [6]