芦哲：联邦巡回法院裁定特朗普征收IEEPA对等关税违法—海外周报

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and moderate PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in tech stocks caused a reversal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively. The revised Q2 GDP data exceeded expectations, driven by business investment, while analysts have raised their growth forecasts for Q3 U.S. economy [2][3][4]. Major Assets - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook raised concerns about the independence of the Fed. The July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index decreased by 0.06% to 97.77, and spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [3][4]. Overseas Economy - The Q2 GDP revision for the U.S. was +3.3%, surpassing the expected +3.1%, with fixed asset investment contributing significantly. Analysts have slightly upgraded their Q3 growth forecasts, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model at +2.22%. Inflation expectations have been adjusted, with analysts forecasting a CPI growth rate of 2.9% for Q3 [4][5]. Overseas Politics - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Fed's establishment in 1913, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, which is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14, allowing time for an appeal [5].