印度GDP增长7.8%背后：通胀调整因子“异常”推高数据

Group 1 - India's economy showed a strong growth of 7.8% year-on-year for the April to June quarter, surpassing economists' median forecast of 6.7% [1] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Nomura expressed concerns that a lower deflator may have inflated the growth figures, not accurately reflecting the true economic fundamentals [1][2] - Despite the concerns, market sentiment was boosted, with the Nifty benchmark index rising by 0.8% on the day following the data release [1] Group 2 - The GDP deflator used in India is closely related to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which has turned negative since May, leading to an artificially low deflator and potentially overstating GDP growth [2] - Goldman Sachs economist Santanu Sengupta suggested that using a corrected deflator could lower GDP data by 50 basis points, while HSBC's Pranjul Bhandari estimated the exaggeration could be as high as one percentage point [2] Group 3 - Several institutions have raised their annual growth forecasts for India, with Nomura increasing its estimate from 6% to 6.6% and Goldman Sachs from 6.1% to 6.7% [3] - Analysts caution that these upward revisions do not indicate a positive outlook on the economic fundamentals, as the growth is influenced by a low deflator and preemptive shipments to the U.S. due to tariff concerns [3] - The external challenge of a 50% tariff on Indian goods imposed by the U.S. is expected to impact economic data in the following months, with Goldman Sachs estimating a potential reduction of 0.9 percentage points in annual GDP [3]