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云计算+AI+即时零售三箭齐发,阿里迎来历史新拐点?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-01 13:45

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's recent quarterly report has led major investment banks to express optimism about the company's future, highlighting accelerated growth in cloud services, synergies from flash sales, and sustainable growth prospects in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) [1] Cloud Computing AI Business - Alibaba's cloud computing revenue reached 33.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 26%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 20-25% [2] - AI-related revenue has maintained triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, now accounting for over 20% of external cloud revenue [2][3] - The growth is driven by strong demand for AI inference and vertical industry model training, as well as increased penetration of AI in traditional computing and storage services [3] Instant Retail Business - The flash sales business launched in late April has shown substantial synergy effects, with monthly active users increasing by 200% to 300 million and daily order volume reaching 80 million [4] - Analysts note that the flash sales business has begun to generate significant synergies, enhancing user engagement and expanding the supply chain [4][5] CMR Growth - Concerns about a potential slowdown in CMR growth have been alleviated, with analysts noting that advertising demand has been boosted by the integration of new tools and increased traffic from flash sales [6] - CMR is expected to maintain resilience despite high comparative bases, with predictions of high single-digit growth in the coming quarters [6] Profitability and Investment Outlook - While target prices have been raised, earnings forecasts for fiscal year 2026 have been lowered due to initial investment costs in the flash sales business, with adjustments of 14% by HSBC and 13% by JPMorgan [7] - Analysts believe that the short-term profitability pressure is justified, as Alibaba has sufficient financial resources for strategic investments [7] - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of sustainable double-digit profit growth driven by cloud and e-commerce business acceleration [7]