洪灏：中国、日本、美国经济和房地产周期观察 25博鳌房地产论坛

Economic Cycles and Debt Levels - The comparison of non-financial sector debt levels in China, Japan, and the US highlights the long-term real estate cycles and their impact on economic conditions [2][3] - Japan's non-financial sector debt peaked in 1992 and took approximately 65 years to cycle back to a low point, illustrating a long-term economic cycle [3] - The US experienced a violent deleveraging process post-2008, with significant bankruptcies leading to a recovery around 2012, aligning with Japan's policy responses [3][4] China's Real Estate Market - China's household debt trajectory mirrors Japan's, with both countries experiencing a 20-30 year expansion before peaking in 2021, but China's deleveraging process has not yet begun in earnest [4][5] - The Chinese government has initiated a debt reduction plan, but it primarily represents a deferral of existing debt rather than a true reduction [4][5] - The overall debt levels in China, including public and household debt, have been rising, with significant increases noted since 2014-2015 [5] Housing Prices and Market Dynamics - Comparisons of housing prices show that China's real estate market peaked in 2021 and has begun to decline, with a trajectory similar to Japan's post-bubble experience [7][8] - In contrast, first-tier cities in China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, have shown resilience in housing prices, indicating a divergence in market dynamics between first-tier and lower-tier cities [8] - Consumer confidence in China remains at historical lows, which may affect future housing market recovery [8] Short-term Economic Recovery - A quantitative model indicates that China's economy is currently in a recovery phase, with macroeconomic indicators showing an upward trend since late 2022 [9][10] - The stock markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are also reflecting this recovery, with A-shares surpassing 3600 points and the Hang Seng Index above 25000 points [10] - Challenges remain in effectively managing deleveraging in the non-financial sector and ensuring stable economic growth amid declining housing prices [10]