欧洲新“意大利”？法国陷入“恶性循环”困局

Group 1: Political Instability - France is experiencing unprecedented political and fiscal crises, with Prime Minister Borne facing a confidence vote that could lead to her being the fourth government head to resign in 18 months [1][2] - The frequent changes in leadership have raised concerns about governance and policy continuity, increasing market uncertainty [2][3] - The fragmentation of the National Assembly complicates fiscal reforms, as various factions disagree on welfare cuts and tax increases [3] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - France's national debt has surged from €2.2 trillion to €3.3 trillion since President Macron took office, with the 2023 deficit rate revised to 5.5%, exceeding government expectations [2] - The S&P has downgraded France's credit rating, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal sustainability, as the 10-year government bond yield has surpassed that of Greece and is on par with Italy [1][2] - High welfare spending accounts for 65% of the public budget, and there is significant disagreement among political factions on how to address the fiscal shortfall [2][3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The lack of strong political consensus and reform momentum raises the risk of France facing "Italianization," where fiscal discipline deteriorates without effective measures [3] - The potential inability to break the current deadlock and restore fiscal sustainability could have direct implications for both France's economy and the overall stability of the Eurozone [3]