Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 13:58Core Viewpoint - The oil industry is experiencing an unprecedented performance downturn in 2025, with major Chinese oil companies and international oil giants reporting significant declines in revenue and net profit, raising concerns about the potential peak of the oil era [1][3][23]. Group 1: Performance Decline of Chinese Oil Companies - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) reported revenue of 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.68%, and net profit of 839.93 billion yuan, down 5.21%, marking the first dual decline since 2021 [1]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) achieved revenue of 1.41 trillion yuan, down 10.6%, and net profit of 214.83 billion yuan, a decline of 39.8%, the largest drop since 2021 [1]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported revenue of 207.61 billion yuan, down 8%, and net profit of 695.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 13%, the worst half-year report since 2021 [1]. Group 2: Performance Decline of International Oil Giants - Major international oil companies also faced significant profit declines: Saudi Aramco's net profit fell by 10%, ExxonMobil by 15%, TotalEnergies by 21%, Shell by 29.8%, and Chevron and BP by over 30% [1][2]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to Performance Decline - The primary reason for the performance decline is the downward trend in international crude oil prices, influenced by trade wars and OPEC+ production increases [4][7]. - In the first half of 2025, the average crude oil price for CNPC and CNOOC was $66.21 per barrel and $69.15 per barrel, respectively, down 14.5% and 13.9% year-on-year [7]. - The domestic refined oil market experienced ten price adjustments, resulting in a decrease of 330 yuan/ton for gasoline and 315 yuan/ton for diesel [6]. Group 4: Industry Transformation and Peak Oil Demand - The oil demand in China is showing signs of peaking earlier than expected, driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, which accounted for 44.3% of total car sales in the first half of 2025 [12]. - Policies aimed at promoting green innovation in the refining industry are expected to accelerate the peak oil process, with a cap on crude oil processing capacity set at 1 billion tons by 2025 [15]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that China's oil demand will peak in 2026 at approximately 16.5 million barrels per day, influenced by electrification and structural economic changes [21]. Group 5: Strategic Responses from Chinese Oil Companies - In response to the changing landscape, the three major Chinese oil companies are accelerating their transition to renewable energy, with CNPC planning to balance oil, gas, and renewable energy by 2035 [23]. - Sinopec aims for carbon neutrality around 2050 and is focusing on integrating hydrogen with oil and gas operations [23]. - CNOOC is developing offshore renewable energy technologies and aims to create a circular economy model in marine energy [23].