PACIFIC SECURITIES(SH:601099) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-01 14:06Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a structural shift despite a 7% month-on-month decline in second-hand housing transactions, indicating resilience in demand from first-time buyers and upgrading families [2][4]. Market Performance - In July, approximately 19,300 units were sold, reflecting a 7% decrease from June and a 5% year-on-year decline, yet the average daily transactions remained above 600 units [2]. - Adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and typhoons, have impacted viewing activities, with only four days in the month exceeding 900 transactions [2]. Demand Structure Changes - The proportion of ultra-urgent buyers (properties priced below 3 million) increased by 3.97%, with first-time buyers and young families seizing price opportunities [4]. - Demand for upgrading (5-7 million) and improvement (9-11 million) properties also rose, with respective increases of 0.75% and 0.65%, indicating a smoother transition in the housing chain as families upgrade from older homes to newer or suburban properties [4]. High-End Market Trends - The high-end market (properties priced above 15 million) is contracting, with larger units in the inner ring facing pressure from new housing developments, leading to reduced bargaining power for sellers [5]. Policy Environment - Although no new policies have been introduced, the focus remains on stabilizing the market, with both central and local governments accelerating urban renewal initiatives [5]. - Shanghai's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the renovation of old neighborhoods and housing security, which is expected to enhance the overall quality and value of second-hand homes in the long term [5]. Conclusion - The current market phase is characterized by a reconstruction of demand, with first-time and upgrading buyers acting as stabilizing forces. The focus has shifted from "location" to "value for money," presenting an opportune moment for potential buyers to negotiate prices and select properties wisely [6].