YTCO(SH:600066) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-01 14:28Core Viewpoint - Yutong Bus has benefited from high export demand in 2023, with stock prices rising over 339% to peak, but concerns about sustainable growth have emerged due to fluctuations in export data post-July 2024, leading to underperformance compared to the automotive market this year [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Has Yutong's overseas narrative changed? The company is accelerating its breakthrough under the opportunities presented by new energy, with a focus on high-quality development in bus exports, particularly in the new energy sector [1] - What is the long-term potential for Yutong? The domestic bus market is expected to expand to over 100 billion yuan by 2030, while the overseas market could reach 310 billion yuan, with Yutong's market share projected to increase from 35% to 40% domestically and from 5% to 13% overseas [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - How to grasp Yutong's investment rhythm? The company’s stock price has historically been closely linked to export volume trends, and it is suggested to focus on long-term industry trends rather than short-term monthly data fluctuations [2] - Are there potential catalysts ahead? An increase in dividend payout ratios could enhance the company's valuation, with a potential adjustment in PE valuation to above 15 times if annual dividends reach 2 yuan per share [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast - Profit forecasts remain stable for the year, with upward adjustments for export volumes in 2026 and 2027 by 7% and 18% respectively, leading to an expected net profit of 49.0 billion yuan in 2025, 62.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 76.2 billion yuan in 2027 [3]