证券研究报告 核心观点 2026年乘用车总量需求维持相对稳定，预计以旧换新等补贴政策仍将延续。自主品牌市占率、新能源车渗透率趋于平缓，自主品牌和合资品牌、 燃油车和新能源车之间逐步趋于动态平衡。乘用车的结构性增长主要来自于两个方面，一是中高端市场，预计15万元+的占比将逐步提升，中高 端市场的国产替代仍在继续进行；二是随着海外设厂以及本土化车型研发，出口销量仍将保持快速增长。 乘用车整体需求稳定，高端化+出口带来边际增量 2026年智能驾驶有望进入新一轮中美共振周期，中国市场L2级智驾标准、L3级智驾试点有望逐步落地，无人配送车迎来爆发期；在特斯拉推动 下，美国市场Robotaxi有望迎来爆发式增长。汽车产业链与机器人产业链存在较强的技术及客户协同性，随着汽车行业增速放缓，多家汽车公司 开始转型机器人行业，机器人行业正逐步从导入期进入成长期，具备转型能力和转型意愿的公司更具备成长空间。 科技属性不断提升，智驾+机器人带动产业升级 重卡国内需求仍面临一定压力，随着对俄罗斯出口销量压力的释放，2026年重卡出口销量有望恢复增长；中大客车的出口有望维持快速增长， 盈利弹性主要看欧洲市场，随着欧洲新能源车大巴的渗透率 ...

日前，多个西方国家媒体炒作中国制造的公交车存在安全风险，声称其可能会被生产商远程控制熄火。 《布里斯班时报》称，澳大利亚首都领地政府日前也透露，正在调查其公交车队的安全问题。布里斯班 反对党议员日前在市议会向该市交通委员会主席安德鲁·怀恩斯提问称：在海外传出相关指控后，是否 曾向制造商索要更多信息？怀恩斯坚定反驳了这番质疑。 澳大利亚广播公司（ABC）本月初报道称，宇通澳大利亚经销商VDI公司的发言人就所谓安全质疑回应 道，投入澳大利亚市场的车辆是在当地服务中心进行软件更新，而不是远程更新。宇通澳大利亚公司发 言人则表示，未经客户授权，任何人不得非法访问或查看车辆数据，该公司"严格遵守澳大利亚数据保 护法律法规"。 怀恩斯表示，仅仅因为某件东西是中国制造的就"一定不好"，仅仅因为某人是中国人、某社区是华人社 区就要遭批评，"我认为这样的推断完全不公平"。怀恩斯补充说，社区中并非每个人都能拥抱可再生能 源技术或正视气候变化威胁，提出质疑的反对党议员显然属于后者，"他明显反对电动汽车"。 此前，新加坡陆路交通管理局声明，本地20辆由宇通集团生产的电动公交车都不能被远程遥控。其在回 复《联合早报》询问时说，本地中企 ...

中经记者 夏治斌 石英婧 上海报道 2025年既是"十四五"规划的收官交卷之年，也是为"十五五"发展谋篇布局的关键之年。"十四五"期间， 中国商用车行业在销量起伏中完成了一场静水深流式的结构性重塑。 中国汽车工业协会的数据勾勒出一条曲折的复苏曲线：商用车行业在2021年以产销同比双降开局，2022 年更是深蹲探底，产销同比下滑均超30%。而后在经历2023年的强势反弹后，2024年市场再次小幅回 调。直至2025年1—10月，产销重现接近双位数的同比增长。 这种"W"形的产销起伏背后，是商用车行业从政策驱动转向市场驱动的深层蜕变。行业竞争的逻辑也已 经从单一产品性能的比拼，逐渐转向技术、生态与组织能力的系统较量。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，"十四五"期间，国内各类商用车企业在绿色化、智能化、高端化与全球化 领域精耕细作，完成了多技术路线、全场景覆盖、海内外拓展的多元布局。 比如，宇通相关负责人告诉记者："'十四五'期间，中国商用车行业经历结构性调整，新能源渗透率快 速提升，出口成为高质量发展新引擎，围绕科技创新、产业发展、高端化等领域，新质生产力不断被培 育壮大。面对新形势、新机遇，宇通始终与国家战略步调一致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a slight increase of 0.01% on November 26, with CIMC Vehicles leading the gains, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.02% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price for CIMC Vehicles was 9.90, reflecting a rise of 1.96% with a trading volume of 123,100 shares and a transaction value of 121 million yuan [1] - Yutong Bus closed at 31.06, up by 0.55%, with a trading volume of 76,200 shares and a transaction value of 236 million yuan [1] - JAC Motors closed at 49.02, increasing by 0.22%, with a trading volume of 236,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.158 billion yuan [1] - Foton Motor remained unchanged at 2.75, with a trading volume of 840,200 shares and a transaction value of 232 million yuan [1] - Hanma Technology closed at 6.22, unchanged, with a trading volume of 223,800 shares and a transaction value of 139 million yuan [1] - Golden Dragon Bus decreased slightly by 0.13% to 15.34, with a trading volume of 175,000 shares and a transaction value of 270 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - The commercial vehicle sector saw a net outflow of 77.49 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 12.79 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 90.28 million yuan [2] - The detailed fund flow for specific stocks indicates that China National Heavy Duty Truck had a net inflow of 6.327 million yuan from institutional investors, while Foton Motor saw a net inflow of 5.674 million yuan [3] - Ankai Bus experienced a significant net outflow of 8.657 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating a negative sentiment towards the stock [3]

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's overall sales of new energy heavy trucks remained above 20,000 units, with significant differences in performance among sub-segments, particularly between hydrogen fuel cell trucks and hybrid trucks [1][4]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, a total of 20,100 new energy heavy trucks were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 144%. The breakdown includes 19,700 pure electric trucks, 221 fuel cell trucks, and 152 hybrid trucks, with year-on-year growth rates of 191%, -57%, and 103% respectively [4][6]. - Fuel cell trucks experienced a decline after a brief increase in September, while both pure electric and hybrid trucks continued to see substantial growth, with pure electric trucks outpacing the overall growth rate of new energy heavy trucks [4][6]. Market Share Analysis - From January to October 2025, fuel cell and hybrid trucks accounted for only 1.58% and 0.55% of the new energy heavy truck market, respectively, totaling just 2.13%. The remaining 97.87% were pure electric models, indicating a significant increase in the dominance of pure electric trucks compared to the same period in the previous two years [6][4]. Hybrid Truck Performance - In October 2025, hybrid truck sales reached 152 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 103%, marking the tenth consecutive month of growth. The leading company, YuanCheng, sold 110 units, maintaining its position as the monthly sales champion [10][12]. - The cumulative sales of hybrid trucks from January to October 2025 reached 871 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 158%. However, this growth rate is lower than the overall growth rate of the new energy heavy truck market [14][16]. Company Rankings - YuanCheng holds a dominant market share of 68.08%, significantly increasing by 18.23 percentage points compared to the previous year. Other notable companies include Foton with a market share of 10.79% and Changzheng with 8.96% [16][17].

Market Overview - The automotive industry index increased by 14.79% as of November 21, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 0.38 percentage points and 1.61 percentage points respectively [11][12] - The automotive sector's performance was strong in the first half of 2025 but became more aligned with the broader market in the second half [11][12] - The majority of sub-sectors showed positive growth, with motorcycles and other segments leading the gains [17][18] Financial Performance - The automotive industry achieved a revenue of CNY 36,976.27 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.35%, and a net profit of CNY 1,363.61 billion, up 9.98% [30] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the industry reported revenues of CNY 28,712.84 billion, reflecting a 10.73% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of CNY 1,165.36 billion, up 10.72% [30][31] - The industry’s gross margin was 15.83% in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decline from the previous year, while the net margin improved to 4.29% [33] Passenger Vehicle Segment - The passenger vehicle market is expected to reach record sales in 2025, driven by policy support and increased penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [43] - NEV retail sales reached 10.15 million units from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a market share of 52.73% [45][50] - The market structure is shifting towards domestic brands, which captured nearly 70% of the market share by September 2025, while foreign brands are losing ground [50][51] Commercial Vehicle Segment - The commercial vehicle market showed signs of recovery in 2025, with production and sales increasing by nearly 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters [5] - The growth in the commercial vehicle sector is driven by policies promoting vehicle replacements and the rising sales of new energy commercial vehicles [5][6] Automotive Parts Sector - The national strategy emphasizes "intelligent and connected" technologies as the main axis for upgrading the automotive industry [5] - The penetration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to drive market expansion and domestic substitution in core hardware [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the automotive sector, recommending key companies in the passenger vehicle segment such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Great Wall Motors [6] - In the commercial vehicle segment, Yutong Bus is recommended, along with a focus on China National Heavy Duty Truck [6] - For the automotive parts sector, companies like Feilong Co., Top Group, and Desay SV are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]

宇通客车所属申万行业为：汽车-商用车-商用载客车。所属概念板块包括：宁德时代概念、世界杯、电 子后视镜、高派息、氢能源等。 截至9月30日，宇通客车股东户数4.40万，较上期减少15.98%；人均流通股50305股，较上期增加 19.02%。2025年1月-9月，宇通客车实现营业收入263.66亿元，同比增长9.52%；归母净利润32.92亿元， 同比增长35.38%。 分红方面，宇通客车A股上市后累计派现271.30亿元。近三年，累计派现99.63亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，宇通客车十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股2.44亿股，相比上期增加656.63万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第八大流通股 东，持股2272.72万股，相比上期减少100.70万股。华夏能源革新股票A（003834）位居第九大流通股 东，持股1648.01万股，为新进股东。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第十大流通股东，持股1634.75 万股，相比上期减少53.32万股。南方兴润价值一年持有混合A（011363）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 1 ...

2025年11月25日 标的指数成份股涨幅 TOP20 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：杨赐 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 車日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 603730 SH | 岱美股份 | 9.99 | 21.56 | 3.68 | | 2 | 603508.SH | 思维列控 | 6.14 | 31.38 | 13.33 | | 3 | 002572.SZ | 家非亚 | 4.19 | -11.70 | 7.35 | | 4 | 603888 SH | 新澳股份 | 3.92 | 11.45 | 4.20 | | 5 | 000928.SZ | 中钢国际 | 3.83 | 7.03 | 4.77 | | 6 | 600970.SH | 中材国际 | 3.49 | 5.13 | 4.95 | | 7 | 605117.SH | 德业股份 | 3.40 | 36.47 | 4 ...

1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎么看？ 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反映到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 1）天时： 符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 2）地利： 客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和： 国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 客车11月月报： 10月内需同比修复，期待年底翘尾行情 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年11月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2 ◼ 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术 输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真真切切反映到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对 客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背后支撑因素： （ ➢ 1）天时：符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余 年的出海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业 【走出去】。 ➢ 2）地利：客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车 已领先海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 ➢ 3）人和：国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲 击+新能源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年 ...