山西焦煤(000983)：煤价下跌影响利润 后续可展望供给端政策

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 18.1 billion yuan, down 16.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.014 billion yuan, down 48.44% [1] - The coal business experienced a revenue drop of 13.48% to 10.4 billion yuan, while the gross profit from coal fell by 24.15% to 4.94 billion yuan [1] - The power and heat business showed a slight revenue decline of 5.24% to 3.15 billion yuan, but gross profit surged by 930% to 270 million yuan due to reduced costs [1] - The coking business faced a severe revenue decline of 34.76% to 3.12 billion yuan, with a gross loss of 48.75 million yuan, reflecting ongoing pressures from the real estate sector [1] Coal Business - In H1 2025, coal revenue was 10.4 billion yuan, down 13.48%, with costs at 5.45 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.82% [1] - The gross profit from coal was 4.94 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.15% [1] Power and Heat Business - The power and heat segment generated revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, down 5.24%, while costs decreased by 12.56% to 2.88 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit for this segment increased significantly to 270 million yuan, a rise of 930% year-on-year [1] Coking Business - The coking business reported revenue of 3.12 billion yuan, down 34.76%, with costs matching revenue at 3.12 billion yuan [1] - The gross profit for the coking segment was a loss of 48.75 million yuan, a decline of 269% year-on-year [1] Q2 Performance and Market Outlook - The decline in Q2 performance was primarily attributed to falling coal prices, with the average price of coking coal rising by 24.7% to 1,074 yuan/ton in Q3 2025 [2] - The company declared a cash dividend of 0.036 yuan per share, totaling approximately 204.38 million yuan, which is 20.16% of the net profit for H1 2025 [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 35.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 22.44%, followed by slight increases in subsequent years [2] - Expected net profits are projected at 1.553 billion yuan for 2025, down 50.04%, with a recovery anticipated in the following years [2]