每日期货全景复盘9.1：市场仍然预期9月降息概率较高，沪银强势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with more contracts rising than falling, indicating increased trading activity and capital inflow into certain commodities [2][5][8]. Market Dynamics - Today's main contracts saw 45 contracts increase while 33 contracts decreased, reflecting a general bullish sentiment in the market [2]. - The top gainers included polysilicon (+6.03%), silver (+4.16%), and caustic soda (+2.82%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [5]. - The largest capital inflows were observed in copper (1.989 billion), silver (1.741 billion), and gold (1.488 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [8]. - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from the CSI 300 (-4.304 billion), CSI 500 (-3.721 billion), and CSI 1000 (-2.890 billion), suggesting notable withdrawals from these contracts [8]. Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were noted in propylene (+34.15%), caustic soda (+18.80%), and silver (+12.15%), indicating new capital entering these markets [11]. - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were seen in fuel oil (-15.68%), stainless steel (-17.71%), and tin (-22.28%), suggesting capital withdrawal from these commodities [11]. Key Events and Insights - Domestic polysilicon prices have risen to 55 yuan/kg due to recent industry self-discipline and market trading influences, with expectations of a strong long-term price trend despite short-term fluctuations [12]. - Iron ore imports at Chinese ports increased, with total arrivals at 25.26 million tons, indicating stable supply conditions but rising pressure on steel inventories [13]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are experiencing upward price movements due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical tensions, enhancing their appeal as safe-haven assets [14][20]. - The coal market is facing volatility due to "anti-involution" policy expectations, with coking coal prices hitting new lows, influenced by production increases and inventory pressures [22]. Future Focus - Upcoming reports from USDA regarding soybean crushing and crop growth are anticipated to provide insights into market dynamics and potential price movements [16][17][18]. - The market is expected to monitor the impact of seasonal demand and policy developments on various commodities, particularly in the context of the upcoming harvest season and geopolitical developments [23].