招商基金吴潇：当前市场仍处于过去三年中较好阶段，动态平衡中有机会可挖掘

Core Insights - Wu Xiao is a unique fund manager with a background in actuarial science and a career that began in arbitrage, now excelling in active equity investment [1][4] - His investment approach emphasizes a mid-term perspective of 2-3 years, focusing on industry trends, business models, and competitive advantages [1][8] - Wu Xiao's investment strategy includes a systematic risk management framework across four levels: market, industry, style, and individual stocks [5][7] Investment Philosophy - Wu Xiao's investment methodology combines actuarial thinking with a Bayesian approach, creating a logical and systematic investment solution [1][4] - He emphasizes the importance of rebalancing, having successfully navigated market trends such as the small-cap stock boom and the leader stock bubble [1][5] - His investment strategy aims for a balanced portfolio with superior risk-adjusted returns, often ranking highly over 2-3 year periods [1][6] Background and Experience - Wu Xiao studied actuarial science and finance, starting his career in risk control before moving to proprietary investment, where he capitalized on arbitrage opportunities [4][6] - His transition to public fund management in 2016 allowed him to leverage his quantitative analysis skills and deep equity research capabilities [4][6] Risk Management - Wu Xiao's risk management framework includes maintaining a stable high position in equity funds to avoid frequent market timing, which is often ineffective for long-term excess returns [6][7] - He limits individual industry holdings to 15% to prevent over-concentration and reduce volatility [7] - His approach to dynamic rebalancing allows for adjustments based on asset class performance, aiming to maintain optimal risk-adjusted returns [11][13] Stock Selection Criteria - Wu Xiao's stock selection is influenced by the investment duration, focusing on sustainable business models for 2-3 year holds and assessing long-term viability for 5-10 year investments [8][9] - He prioritizes companies with stable competitive positions and the ability to generate good cash flow returns for shareholders [8][9] - Market conditions and a company's resilience during economic fluctuations are critical factors in his investment decisions [9][10] Market Dynamics - Wu Xiao identifies three main drivers of the current market: asset scarcity leading to increased interest in high-dividend stocks, improved market liquidity from corporate actions, and a supportive policy environment [15][16] - He believes that while the market has seen rapid gains, it is unlikely to enter a bubble phase similar to 2015, with a stable upward trend expected in the medium term [16]