TF Securities(SH:601162) Zheng Quan Ri Bao·2025-09-01 16:07Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through reverse repos and is expected to continue this strategy in September to ensure short-term market liquidity remains ample [1][2]. Group 1: Market Operations - On September 1, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 182.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan due to 288.4 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. - A significant amount of reverse repos is set to mature in September, totaling approximately 1.9847 trillion yuan from September 2 to September 5, along with 1 trillion yuan of 3-month reverse repos maturing on September 5 [1]. - The PBOC has been increasing its MLF and reverse repo operations for three consecutive months, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity in the market [2]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - According to analysts, September's liquidity may be affected by a high volume of maturing funds and government bond issuances, alongside a notable amount of interbank certificates of deposit maturing, which is around 3.5 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The PBOC is expected to reinforce reverse repo operations to ensure sufficient liquidity in the short term, while also potentially increasing MLF and reverse repo volumes to counteract medium to long-term liquidity tightening [2]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the PBOC may resume government bond trading in the fourth quarter, especially as the yield on 10-year government bonds has risen to around 1.8%, and there is an expectation of moderate growth-supporting policies being implemented [3].