世界领导人就美联储独立性向特朗普发出警告

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook raises concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy, which could have severe implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Policy - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve could undermine the independence of U.S. monetary policy, potentially destabilizing the U.S. economy and affecting global economic balance [1][3]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered crucial for maintaining the U.S. economy's stability and its position in the global economy, as political interference can lead to inflation, currency depreciation, and stock market declines [3]. Group 2: Legal and Political Context - Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook is unprecedented in U.S. history, as it marks the first time a president has sought to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor, which may lead to legal challenges up to the Supreme Court [3]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit to prevent her dismissal, and it remains uncertain whether federal courts will agree that a criminal transfer without actual charges meets the "for cause" standard for removing a Federal Reserve governor [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Key inflation indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), have remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target throughout the year, with July PCE showing a year-over-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE rising to 2.9% [4]. - The July CPI data indicated a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.7%, with core CPI increasing by 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a 89.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% stands at 10.3% [5].