21评论丨美联储动向如何影响黄金价格？

Core Insights - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures settling at $3546 per ounce as of September 1, marking a year-to-date increase of 31.74% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside personnel changes within the Fed [2] Price Trends - Year-to-date increases in gold prices include: London spot gold at $3478 per ounce (up 29.58%) and Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 at 794.66 yuan per gram (up 25.68%) [1] - Average daily price increases for gold in different phases of 2025 are as follows: London spot gold at 0.295% in Q1, 0.080% in Q2, and 0.09% in Q3; COMEX gold futures at 0.3% in Q1, 0.084% in Q2, and 0.14% in Q3; Shanghai Au9999 at 0.2916% in Q1, 0.063% in Q2, and 0.07% in Q3 [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of a new equilibrium with a slowdown in job creation, averaging only 35,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, significantly below previous levels [4] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. was 4.2% in July 2025, remaining stable but indicating a softening labor market [5] - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the U.S. CPI and core CPI showing year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 3% respectively as of July 2025, influenced by tariff policies [6] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened due to recent personnel changes and political pressures, including the dismissal of a Fed governor by President Trump [7]