基本面中期驱动向下 苯乙烯后市仍以偏空思路对待

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the styrene price has shown a downward trend, with a significant drop from above 7400 yuan/ton to around 7000 yuan/ton, driven by increased short positions and weak fundamentals in the industry [1] - The styrene production capacity has improved due to higher profit margins from raw material benzene, with the styrene-benzene price spread averaging 1200 yuan/ton, leading to an overall production load above 78%, which is 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - New production capacities are being introduced, with significant installations expected in the fourth quarter, which may further increase supply pressure on styrene prices [2] Group 2 - Despite the traditional peak season, the demand for styrene is expected to grow only moderately, with downstream production rates for ABS, PS, and EPS showing slight increases, but overall demand remains under pressure [3] - High inventory levels at ports, reaching 19.65 million tons, are exerting downward pressure on styrene prices and valuations, exceeding historical levels and the highest point of the year [3] - The cost support from crude oil is insufficient, with expectations of weak performance in the fourth quarter, and the supply-demand balance for benzene remains weak, limiting upward price movements for styrene [4]